|
Defenses have begun to strike back in college football. FBS offenses scored just 27.8 points per game in 2023, the lowest national average since 2009. After gaining 5.80 yards per play from 2016 to 2021, offenses averaged 5.75 yards in 2022 and 2023. That doesn't sound like much of a drop, but with slowdowns in tempo too -- defenses have made it a lot more difficult to derive an advantage with pace -- it adds up to 31 fewer cumulative yards in a given game. There are still plenty of interesting offenses. The Will Stein-Dillon Gabriel coordinator-quarterback combo could produce something intriguing at Oregon, as could the Andy Kotelnicki-Drew Allar (Penn State) and Mike Denbrock-Riley Leonard (Notre Dame) pairings. And both Memphis and Arizona should be ridiculously entertaining. But defenses might tell the tale of 2024. With that in mind, here are 12 defenses that, for one reason (they're wildly talented) or another (the coordinator is doing interesting things), are particularly compelling to me heading toward the fall. 
Ohio State Buckeyes Remember a year ago, when we were all talking about how much Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles had to prove after a disappointing debut season in Columbus? Safe to say, he proved it. The Buckeyes held seven of 12 FBS opponents to their fewest yards per play of the season, allowed more than 17 points just once all year and jumped to second in defensive SP+. With their worst offense in 12 seasons, per SP+, they still went 11-2 and had the ball with a chance to beat eventual national champion Michigan. Even with a bit of an overhaul underway on offense, they'll probably begin 2024 with a top-three ranking in the preseason polls. Knowles' third Buckeyes defense returns 10 of the 14 players who saw at least 300 snaps last season, including tackle Tyleik Williams (9 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 4 breakups), ends JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer (combined: 16 TFLs, 11.5 sacks), linebacker Sonny Styles (a team-leading 10 run stops) and corners Davison Igbinosun and Denzel Burke (combined: 1 interception, 15 breakups, 4.5 TFLs). OSU also added Alabama transfer Caleb Downs, who was already one of the best safeties in the country as a true freshman. Defensive backs with (A) at least nine havoc plays (TFLs, INTs, breakups, forced fumbles), (B) at least eight run stops, (C) a tackle success rate of at least 88% and (D) a defensive QBR allowed of 35 or lower in 2023: Downs, Alabama (returning in 2024) Clayton Isbell, Coastal Carolina Tykee Smith, Georgia Hunter Wohler, Wisconsin (returning in 2024)
No one knows how to use a deep, physical secondary more than Knowles, and he might have the deepest, most physical and best secondary in the country.
Alabama Crimson Tide In his past two coordinator stints, Kane Wommack immediately improved South Alabama's defense from 118th in SP+ to 77th in 2016 and immediately improved Indiana's from 66th to 28th in 2019. In three years as South Alabama's head coach, his Jaguars peaked at 42nd in defensive SP+. Wommack is guaranteed to field an ultra-aggressive pass defense with solid run fits up front and lots of different looks: He'll primarily lean on a 3-4 or 3-3-5 formation, but last year South Alabama also used zero to two down linemen 25% of the time and five linebackers 13% of the time. He's a tinkerer, and his defenses are fun to watch. A former coaching prodigy, Wommack earned his first defensive coordinator job at age 26 at Eastern Illinois. Now 36, he gets the keys to Alabama's defense. You know, the best defense in the country over the course of the Nick Saban era. Best average defensive SP+ rankings, 2008-23: Alabama, 4.3 Iowa, 10.8 Ohio State, 12.5 Georgia, 12.7 Wisconsin, 13.6
Expectations are brutally high, and the secondary has been hit hard by attrition -- of the 11 DBs with at least 20 snaps last season, only slot corner Malachi Moore and safety DeVonta Smith return -- but this is still by far the most talented defense Wommack has ever coached. In addition to the 10 blue-chip freshmen coming in, the Tide have the mammoth Tim Keenan III and Jaheim Oatis up front, linebacker Deontae Lawson to clean up messes and, in Moore, one of the best nickelbacks in the country. Watching what Wommack tries to deploy will be fascinating.
Florida State Seminoles In Adam Fuller's four seasons as coordinator, the Seminoles have gone from 93rd to 66th to 19th to ninth in defensive SP+. One of the many reasons FSU's College Football Playoff snub was appalling was that, despite the issues that struck the offense after Jordan Travis' injury, the defense was clearly CFP-worthy late in the regular season, allowing 3.3 yards per play and 34 total points in the last three games before playoff selection. Over the final six weeks of the regular season, the Noles ranked first in net yards allowed per pass attempt, second in yards allowed per play, second in sacks per dropback and second in third-down conversion rate allowed. (The less said about the Orange Bowl against Georgia, the better.)  Of the 17 players who recorded at least 300 snaps last year, nine are gone, including four of six linemen. But end Patrick Payton (7 sacks, 11 breakups, 11 run stops) and dynamite corners Fentrell Cypress II and Azareye'h Thomas (combined: 16 breakups, 5 TFLs) return, and almost no one does a better job of filling gaps through the transfer portal than FSU head coach Mike Norvell, who has thus far brought in four linemen, Miami corner Davonte Brown and a pair of blue-chip Alabama transfers. Improving for a fourth straight season might be difficult, but it's not impossible.
Clemson Tigers At a national level, more college defenses are moving toward the 3-3-5 alignment, with just three down linemen and a permanent fifth defensive back. But if Clemson coach Dabo Swinney has proved anything in recent years, it's that he's not influenced by trends. He's going to do what he wants to do. That has backfired at times: Rivals such as FSU have shown they're capable of using the portal to their extreme benefit, but Swinney's allergy to transfers has prevented the Tigers from addressing weaknesses more quickly. Even so, it hasn't necessarily backfired on defense, where coordinator Wes Goodwin continues to adhere to a structure with four down linemen. Despite giving at least 285 snaps to four freshmen, the Tigers still fielded one of the best pass defenses in the country in 2023. Those freshmen -- end T.J. Parker (11.5 TFLs), tackle Peter Woods (7 run stops) and corners Avieon Terrell and Khalil Barnes (combined: 4 INTs, 11 breakups, 5 TFLs) -- were already among Clemson's best defenders, and now they'll anchor a unit that also returns linebacker Barrett Carter and safety R.J. Mickens (plus top-15 freshman linebacker Sammy Brown). Thanks to a shaky run defense, Clemson slipped to 21st in defensive SP+, and there's no guarantee things will improve up front with four of last year's top five linemen gone. But there's plenty of size in the rotation between Woods (315 pounds) and seniors Payton Page (315) and DeMonte Capehart (320) and lots of experience everywhere else.
Michigan Wolverines Amid all the Sturm und Drang about stressed-out college coaches leaving for the pros -- a phenomenon that isn't even slightly new, even if being a major college coach in the particularly frontierlike current environment is quite exhausting -- a very well-known NFL defensive coach moved to the collegiate ranks: Wink Martindale. The 60-year-old coordinator had spent the past two decades in the pros and fielded maybe the best defense in the NFL with John Harbaugh's Baltimore Ravens in 2019 and 2020. He struggled in two years of leading the New York Giants' defense, but, well, coaching for the Giants hasn't been the best career move for many people of late. Coaching Michigan's defense, on the other hand, has been pretty great. In the nine-year Jim Harbaugh era, the Wolverines ranked seventh or better in defensive SP+ seven times, ranking first during last season's national title run. The blitz-happy Martindale inherits a defense that is replacing nine of 18 players with 250-plus snaps, as Michigan is currently 101st in returning production on defense (and 132nd on offense). But he'll have a pair of ferocious rush ends in Derrick Moore and Josaiah Stewart. Junior tackle Kenneth Grant might be the most active and agile 350-pounder in the sport and he pairs with Mason Graham, who might be the best player on the unit. And the combination of all-world corner Will Johnson and veteran safeties Makari Paige and Quinten Johnson should be able to prevent too many fires. Will Johnson might be the best returning cornerback in college football.  New coach Sherrone Moore needed to make a splash hire in replacing outgoing coordinator Jesse Minter, who followed Jim Harbaugh to the Los Angeles Chargers. In Martindale, it sure feels like Moore made one.
USC Trojans In his seven years as a head coach, Lincoln Riley's teams have averaged an offensive SP+ ranking of 3.1 and a defensive SP+ ranking of 60.4. After jumping to 25th thanks to a late surge in 2020, Riley's last Oklahoma defense slipped to 57th. And in two seasons at USC, his Trojans' defenses have ranked 87th and 105th, respectively. Gross. I talked myself into USC's defense improving a bit in 2023, and that's on me. I thought the addition of transfers such as tackle Bear Alexander and linebacker Mason Cobb, combined with the "surely it can't get any worse, right?" factor, could produce at least average results. And if Riley has even an average defense, he's going to win lots of games. Instead, USC's defense got even worse, and Riley finally convinced himself to part with defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. And on paper, at least, he made a hell of a replacement hire in plucking D'Anton Lynn from UCLA. In his lone season with the Bruins, Lynn improved a habitually poor defense from 92nd to 17th in defensive SP+; among other results, UCLA held USC to a season-low 20 points (including three total rushing yards). It evidently made an impression on Riley. Lynn will have to overcome another poor defensive culture, and only six of the 15 players with 250-snaps return (with seven transfers incoming), so this will be yet another high-turnover offseason. Lynn is facing a tall task. Projected 2024 defensive SP+ rankings, Big Ten: 1. Ohio State 2. Michigan 3. Iowa 4. Penn State 6. Nebraska 7. Wisconsin 14. Northwestern 15. Oregon 17. Rutgers 22. Minnesota 28. Maryland 29. Michigan State 31. UCLA 39. Illinois 40. Washington 66. Indiana 71. Purdue 98. USC All USC needs is a top-50 or so defense to be a very, very good football team. That should never be too high a bar to clear, but it's been three years since Riley cleared it.
Boise State Broncos When Andy Avalos got fired as Boise State's coach last season, it was an unlikely culprit that finished him off: the Broncos' defense. BSU had ranked in the top 30 of defensive SP+ in each of the previous two seasons and hadn't ranked worse than 50th since 2016, but it plummeted to 82nd in 2023, allowing at least 31 points in five of six losses and giving up at least 6.0 yards per play seven times. It lost defensive tackle Scott Matlock to the NFL and most of the secondary heading into 2023, and turnover caught up to it. What makes the Broncos' defense interesting in 2024, then? At the moment, Boise State ranks first overall in defensive returning production. Of 19 players with at least 248 snaps last year, 16 return, including ace pass-rusher Ahmed Hassanein, do-everything linebacker Andrew Simpson and all but one defensive back. New head coach Spencer Danielson retained veteran defensive coordinator Erik Chinander, and he'll face quite a bit of pressure. If the defense can play at its pre-2023 levels, then with a rejuvenated offense built around running back Ashton Jeanty and, potentially, blue-chip quarterback transfer Malachi Nelson from USC, BSU could be in position to not only repeat as Mountain West champion -- it won its final three games of the regular season after Avalos' firing and took the crown -- but also a run at a bid in the first expanded College Football Playoff. Even with merely decent expected defensive numbers, after all, the Broncos are projected underdogs in only one game, per the February 2024 projections.
Oklahoma State Cowboys After a semi-promising start in Bryan Nardo's first season as coordinator, Oklahoma State's defense ran out of gas late in 2023, a victim of injuries up front and what seemed like poor depth in the back. The Cowboys allowed 7.1 yards per play over their last six games, an average so gaudy that it suggests they were lucky to allow only 34.2 points per game in that span. Regardless, after slipping from 17th to 47th in defensive SP+ in 2022, they fell even further, to 69th. That they still won 10 games tells you how impressive their offense became with workhorse back Ollie Gordon -- they averaged 39 points per game in their last seven wins -- but the defense was a weak link. One year's injuries and depth issues, however, can become another year's depth. OSU ranks second in returning defensive production, returning 11 of 15 players with 250-plus snaps, plus initial 2023 starting safety Lyrik Rawls, who was injured after three games. Linebackers Nick Martin and Colin Oliver are shop-wreckers (combined: 33 TFLs, 12 sacks, two interceptions and five breakups on a bad defense), and they will be surrounded by juniors and seniors. Nardo, having moved up from the Division II coaching ranks last year, has his feet wet now as well. OSU is projected 20th overall in SP+, and that's with a defense just outside the top 40. If the Cowboys rediscover their 2022 form on that side of the ball, they become Big 12 favorites.
LSU Tigers LSU was projected seventh in SP+ heading into 2023. It finished 11th, just a little bit off that pace, and lost only to awesome teams (Florida State, Ole Miss, Alabama). That the Tigers nearly met expectations despite a shockingly disappointing defense -- 52nd in defensive SP+, 106th in success rate allowed, 109th in points allowed per drive -- says a lot about how much weight Heisman winner Jayden Daniels and company carried. The Tigers allowed 47.3 points per game in their losses. With Daniels, two likely first-round receivers and offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock gone, the defense won't be allowed to disappoint again. Head coach Brian Kelly made former Missouri coordinator Blake Baker the highest-paid assistant in college football to make sure it doesn't.  Baker is as aggressive as his personnel allows him to be, and in end Paris Shand and linebackers Harold Perkins Jr. and Bradyn Swinson, he has at least a few known playmakers. Perkins is particularly tantalizing: One of the breakout stars of 2022, he was deployed differently in 2023 -- more linebacker, less edge rusher -- and seemed to disappoint. But even in a "disappointing" season, he was one of only two FBS defenders to record at least 15 TFLs, five sacks, three forced fumbles and one interception. Baker should have some fun with him, especially if an experienced secondary allows him to take some risks. Six of last year's top seven DBs return -- even if "top" in this case doesn't necessarily mean "really good" -- and are joined by Texas A&M safety transfer Jardin Gilbert and former Ohio State corners JK Johnson and Jyaire Brown.
SMU Mustangs Sometimes it takes a year to figure out which buttons to press. In 2022, Scott Symons' first season as SMU defensive coordinator, the Mustangs plummeted from a mediocre 78th in defensive SP+ to a ghastly 115th. But in 2023, his second season, they fielded their best defense in 25 years. They ranked first nationally in passing downs success rate, third in sack rate, fourth in third-down conversion rate and fifth in three-and-out rate, and they enjoyed their best defensive SP+ ranking since 1998. What a turnaround. Best SMU defenses since the death penalty (1987-88): 1998 (27th) 1997 (34th) 2023 (39th) 2011 (40th) 2005 (47th)
SMU finished the season both eighth in scoring offense and 11th in scoring defense, and when quarterback Preston Stone was hurt for the AAC championship game, defense drove a title game win over Tulane. Of the seven defenders with at least three sacks last season, five return, including senior star Elijah Roberts, and Rhett Lashlee was once again aggressive in the transfer portal, adding four power conference tackles and two ends. It's relevant to question whether SMU has the overall depth to create staying power in its first season in the ACC, but it definitely has the defensive line depth. Losing star corners Chris Megginson and Charles Woods hurts, but Symons -- who remained in Dallas despite being linked to other coordinator openings this offseason -- should have plenty of speed and aggressiveness at his disposal.
Indiana Hoosiers James Madison defensive coordinator Bryant Haines was another one of the more tactically interesting coaches in the country over the past couple of years. The Dukes operated from a pretty strict 4-2-5 formation, blitzing constantly (25th in blitzes per dropback) and creating constant havoc with a seven-lineman rotation up front. They were first nationally in success rate allowed and 17th in yards per play. JMU has been in FBS for just two seasons, but thanks in part to Haines they have also produced two top-50 defensive SP+ rankings. That's pretty incredible. Best Group of 5 defenses (average SP+ rating), 2022-23: Air Force Troy Miami (Ohio) James Madison Toledo
Haines was part of a large JMU contingent to follow head coach Curt Cignetti to Indiana. Ten transfers moved from JMU to IU, too, including four members of that destructive front six (end Mikail Kamara, tackle James Carpenter and linebackers Aiden Fisher and Jailin Walker) who combined for 42.5 tackles for loss and 14.5 sacks. They join active Old Dominion safeties Shawn Asbury II and Terry Jones Jr., plus decent holdovers such as end Lanell Carr Jr. and cornerback Kobee Minor. After a run of excellent defensive play, Indiana hasn't produced a defensive SP+ ranking better than 70th since 2020, and it might take Haines and company a little while to get things figured out in the Big Ten. But this JMU transplant could offer a shot at quick improvement, too. I'm very curious about the Hoosiers this season.
East Carolina Pirates What should you do when your offense is completely collapsing, as ECU's did in 2023 (from 33rd to 124th in offensive SP+), and your defense might have to pick up the slack? You should try stuff! And few coordinators tried a more interesting combination of stuff than ECU's Blake Harrell. The Pirates ranked sixth in success rate allowed and 11th in three-and-out percentage. They were good in the red zone and great on fourth downs. They forced the issue, and ... oh yeah ... they also allowed 5.5 gains per game of 20-plus yards (110th). They were incredibly all-or-nothing, allowing 13 or fewer points in five games and 30 or more in four. They allowed 3.5 points per game in ECU's wins and allowed 13 or fewer in three losses. The good news is, they were far less all-or-nothing as the year went on -- after allowing 34.7 points per game in their first three, they allowed 18.3 from there. And while the linebacking corps got hit pretty hard by attrition, the line is almost completely intact, and the secondary has both experience and an absolute star in 6-foot-3 corner Shavon Revel. The bad news, as it were, is that there's no guarantee the offense bounces back. But the defense was bowl-worthy in 2023, and hey, relentless and aggressive defenses are always worth watching. The offense doesn't need to be awesome for the Pirates to bounce back.
|
