Not all schedules are created equal. Some teams may have benefited from soft early schedules and could be in for a rude awakening as the schedules get tougher in their conference. Others have already gotten through most of their big tests for the year and are primed to make a steady climb in the polls the second half of the season.
Here are the teams ready to rise and fall based on schedule.
Teams set to rise
The Huskies lost at the right time of the year, which is the opening weekend. They are currently ranked No. 10 but could rise all the way to a playoff spot by the end of the year. Washington does have three reasonably tough road tests with Oregon, California and Washington State but should handle all of those, and it gets Stanford at home. I will call for Washington to win out and win the Pac-12 title game, which would mean it will keep moving up the rankings as some teams ahead of the Huskies in the polls start to absorb some losses.
The Longhorns check in at No. 19 and are an underdog this week against Oklahoma. A win in the Red River Rivalry would give them an immediate jump up the polls, but even a loss should not cause a steep drop. Their remaining road games are against Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Kansas, and I put all those into the winnable category. Winning those games as well as the other remaining games on their schedule would result in a steady climb up the polls in the second half of the year as well as a possible berth in the Big 12 title game.
The Hawkeyes are not currently ranked but will be at the end of the year. The Wisconsin final score was misleading as they lost by 11 points but led 17-14 with about a minute left. Iowa has five road games left but takes on just one ranked team the rest of the year in Penn State. I currently have Iowa favored in seven of its last eight games, and the Hawkeyes should enter the top 25 in the next few weeks and should continue to climb as they rack up more victories.
Miami took a drastic tumble when it lost to LSU on a Sunday night to start the season, going from No. 8 down to No. 22. The Hurricanes have been making a steady rise since and should continue their ascent. Right now they sit at No. 17 in the current AP poll. While they do have some road games that will test them, with quarterback N'kosi Perry, they figure to be favored in all their remaining games. If they take care of business, the Hurricanes will be ranked high enough that a win over Clemson in the ACC title game would likely put them into the College Football Playoff.
The Irish are 5-0 and ranked No. 6 but could continue their rise in the rankings coming off an impressive home win against Stanford. While the remaining schedule is not easy, the slate may not feature a single ranked team the rest of the year. This week's road game at Virginia Tech and the season finale at USC are sure to be their toughest two remaining tests, but the Irish will be the favorite in all their remaining games.
The Wolverines are currently No. 15 in the AP poll, but have a three-week span that could push them right toward the top. They host Wisconsin, then visit in-state rival Michigan State and then after a bye get Penn State at home. The Wolverines could very well be the favorite in all three of those games, and that would have them make a drastic rise up the polls if they take care of business in those three crucial conference games.
Florida lost to Kentucky at home and was written off as a weak and overrated team by many. The Gators actually had the ball down by four points until a fumble return for a touchdown on the final play of that game. Their defensive front seven is bolstered by the return of some key players who were either suspended or injured early on in the season. Florida just knocked off a pumped-up Mississippi State team on the road in a loud environment and has only two true road games left in Vanderbilt and Florida State. The Gators are currently No. 22 and with that schedule, they should ascend the rankings during the second half of the year.
The Trojans may have played their two toughest road games of the season when they lost at Stanford and Texas. Losing those two games by a combined score of 54-17, they fell to 1-2 and dropped entirely out of the rankings. USC will continue to get stronger each week and is currently my favorite to win the Pac-12 South Division, as the Trojans should be the favorite in their remaining six Pac-12 home games. It will take them a few weeks to get back in the mix for a top-25 spot, but the Trojans will get back into the AP Top 25 at some point as long as they keep winning.
Teams set to fall
The Cowboys are ranked No. 25 in the AP poll and should reach a 5-1 or 6-1 record through their first six or seven games. Their schedule is backloaded this year as they have faced mostly teams from the bottom of the conference to start and have all the toughest foes on deck such as Oklahoma, Texas, West Virginia and TCU. That could make for a tough second half of the season for the Cowboys.
The Aggies are better than their 3-2 record would indicate as the two losses are to Alabama and Clemson. The Aggies have a tough home game this week versus Kentucky, and a win in that game would likely put them back in the top 25. After that, they have three consecutive tough road games against South Carolina, Mississippi State and Auburn and could be an underdog in all three of those games. A home game against No. 5 LSU also awaits the Aggies in late November. Another couple of losses would keep Texas A&M out of the top 25.
North Carolina State, undefeated at 4-0, ranks No. 23 and has Ryan Finley leading the way at quarterback. Even though the ACC is down a bit this year, the rest of the schedule is tough with all seven foes rated higher than any team the Wolfpack have faced up to this point. I expect a 4-3 or 3-4 finish from NC State in the final seven games and an eventual drop out of the rankings.
Auburn comes in at No. 8 in the AP poll right now but has not been playing at a high level and was even outgained by Arkansas 290-225 two weeks ago at home. The Tigers could be an underdog at Mississippi State and have a tough game with Texas A&M upcoming. The toughest two games are at the end with road trips to Alabama and Georgia, and two losses there would have them dropping in the polls at season's end.
I will admit that just like Las Vegas, I had LSU as an underdog against both Miami and Auburn and in both cases the Tigers pulled off impressive upsets. I expected them to be 3-2 right now and they are 5-0. LSU's toughest remaining road games are at Florida and Texas A&M, but unfortunately the Tigers also have to host Alabama and Georgia. They could continue to surprise; however, I see a clear drop for them from their current No. 5 spot by the end of the season.