Mackenzie Kraemer, ESPN Staff Writer 5y

Biggest NFL gambling favorites of the past 10 seasons

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The Minnesota Vikings are currently 16.5-point favorites against the Buffalo Bills. If the spread holds, it will tie the sixth-largest point spread in an NFL game in the past 10 seasons.

How did the five games with bigger lines turn out? Let's take a look.


2013: Denver Broncos (-26.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars entered the game at 0-5, with all five losses coming by double digits. Peyton Manning had the Broncos at 5-0 with an average margin of victory of 18.2 points. All of that added up to the largest point spread since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger (and the largest in any game since the Oakland Raiders were 26.5-point favorites over the Miami Dolphins in 1967).

The Broncos jumped to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter, but a Paul Posluszny pick-six late in the second quarter actually cut the halftime deficit to two.

The Broncos eventually pulled away for a 35-19 win, but the Jaguars easily covered. The line was as high as 27.5 in some books, including the Mirage, and the Broncos closed as a -20000 favorite at Westgate (Jaguars were +3000).

Final score: Broncos 35, Jaguars 19 (Jaguars covered)


2011: New England Patriots (-20.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts

For most of the 2000s, the Patriots and Colts had one of the best rivalries in the NFL. From 2003 to 2010, they met 11 times, including the playoffs, and neither team was ever favored by more than six points. However, in 2011, Peyton Manning was out for the season with a neck injury, and the Colts entered this game at 0-11. This game was actually tied 3-3 with under four minutes left in the second quarter, but the Patriots scored two touchdowns before the halftime break to open a 17-3 lead.

New England extended that lead to 31-3 at the end of the third quarter, but the Colts outscored the Patriots 21-0 in the fourth quarter to earn the backdoor cover. Dan Orlovsky's second touchdown pass of the fourth quarter made it a seven-point game with 36 seconds left, but Deion Branch recovered the ensuing onside kick to ice the game.

Final score: Patriots 31, Colts 24 (Colts covered)


2013: Seattle Seahawks (-19.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The 2013 Jaguars make their second appearance on this list, only this time they weren't able to cover the spread. This was a Week 3 matchup, and it was the largest spread this early in a season since 1992. Seattle took a 24-0 lead into halftime behind three Russell Wilson touchdown passes. Jacksonville briefly threatened a backdoor cover when a Jordan Todman touchdown run cut the lead to 21, but the Seahawks answered with a Tarvaris Jackson touchdown run to seal the cover. This is the largest point spread covered by a favorite since 2001, when the Rams covered a 20-point spread against the Panthers.

Final score: Seahawks 45, Jaguars 17 (Seahawks covered)


2016: New England Patriots (-17) vs. New York Jets

On Christmas Eve 2016, Tom Brady and the Patriots hosted Bryce Petty and the Jets as 17-point favorites. The Patriots scored on three of their first four possessions and led 27-0 at halftime. Any chance of a backdoor cover ended when the Patriots went on a 13-play drive to start the second half, which ended in a LeGarrette Blount touchdown run.

Final score: Patriots 41, Jets 3 (Patriots covered)


2009: Minnesota Vikings (-17) vs. Detroit Lions

Brett Favre and the Vikings entered this game as one of the best teams in the NFL, while the Lions were just one year removed from going 0-16. A Jason Hanson field goal at the end of the first half left the Lions down just seven points at halftime. The Vikings and Lions traded touchdowns on their opening drives of the second half, and the Lions entered the fourth quarter still down just seven.

Jeff Dugan caught a touchdown pass with 13:20 left, and Ryan Longwell tacked on a field goal with 7:39 left to pad the Vikings' lead. The Lions had two more chances to get within the number, but each of their final two drives stalled on downs around midfield. The 17-point spread matched the most points by which the Lions have ever been underdogs in the Super Bowl era.

Final score: Vikings 27, Lions 10 (push)

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