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Special to ESPN.com- Licensed professional engineer with 20 years experience
- Uses advanced metrics to find betting market inefficiencies
- Specializes in NFL and CFB totals
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ESPN Sports Betting Analyst- Professional sports bettor finding advantages in inefficient markets
- Joined ESPN in 2019
- MS Sport Psychology, University of Utah
It's Week 7 of the NFL season, and handicappers Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the late game, which will be featured in a separate file).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday evening.
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at New York Jets
Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 65 percent picked Minnesota
Johnson: I bet the Vikings -3 on Sunday night. I anticipated a move up to -3.5, and with my number at Minnesota -4.7, I wanted to get my money down as soon as possible. At -3.5, I wouldn't recommend as big of a play. Something 50 to 60 percent of your standard bet size would be worthwhile. Two different people that I respect quite a bit, however, like the Jets at +3.5 in this matchup. We might see this come back down to the Vikings -3 later in the week anyway, so I wouldn't rush to lay the -3.5.
The Jets only punted one time in Week 6 against the Colts. New York scored 42 points, but Indianapolis still had an outside shot of tying the game late. New York benefitted from four turnovers and earned the win, but the Jets weren't the better team offensively throughout the game. They've struggled in the recent past against quality defenses such as Cleveland and Jacksonville, so I am not overreacting to a 42-34 win over the Colts like I feel the general public has. It's also worth noting that seven Jets starters, including leading rusher Isaiah Crowell, sat out practice on Wednesday.
Pick: Vikings -3 or better, smaller bet at -3.5
Sharp: Despite playing the fifth-easiest schedule of pass offenses, including two of the worst three (Bills and Cardinals), the Vikings pass defense still ranks 25th. Now Minnesota faces its third rookie QB of the year, taking on Sam Darnold and the Jets' No. 27 passing attack. But those numbers are misleading. The Jets played four brutal pass defenses in consecutive weeks. After crushing Detroit's No. 28 pass defense 48-17, they had to face the Dolphins, Browns and Jaguars in consecutive weeks. They lost all three games and Darnold didn't look great.