NFL Week 7 upset picks: Why Jets spell trouble for Vikings

As with last week, Week 7 in the NFL features a number of home underdogs. Vegas doesn't believe in "Brocktober," even after Brock Osweiler's 380-yard performance last week, so Miami is a home underdog to Detroit. Most fans expect New England to go into Chicago and beat the Bears. And the NFL's final unbeaten team, the Los Angeles Rams, is favored by 9.5 points as it travels north to face a historical rival in San Francisco.

There's one more home underdog of three or more points, and that's the game we've chosen for this week's "upset watch."

It's a pick we never would have made before the season. But the New York Jets have overperformed expectations, while the Minnesota Vikings have underperformed, and that gives the Jets a real chance to pull off the upset at MetLife Field this Sunday afternoon.

Upset watch: New York Jets (+3) vs. Minnesota Vikings

Before the season, the Vikings were considered Super Bowl contenders, and the Jets were afterthoughts. But look at the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, and you'll see a very surprising result: Based on Weeks 1-6, we have the Jets (16th) ranked higher than the Vikings (21st). Even in our DAVE ratings, which still incorporate preseason projections, the two teams are neck-and-neck.