How to bet Tuesday's First Four games

Dave Tuley's take: This game is a pick-em, and it's easy to see why. Both teams are seeded No. 11 as two of the last four teams in the field, and both were both on the bubble the past two weeks. The South Point sportsbook, which released its power ratings in advance of posting the NCAA openers on Sunday night, also had these teams rated the same. In addition, their records are nearly identical (Kansas State is 20-13, Wake Forest is 19-13), with Wake Forest more of an over team and Kansas State more of an under team. Their ATS records are also similar, with K-State at 15-12-2 (55.6 percent) and Wake at 16-14 (53.3 percent). Likewise, both teams also won their regular-season finales on March 4 while on the bubble, and then won two conference tourney games before getting ousted.

Now, unlike the earlier matchup, we've had a lot of chances to see both teams plays in recent weeks, and I give the "eye test" to Wake Forest, which goes against a personal bias, as I had Kansas State against Baylor in its 70-64 win as a 4.5-point underdog on Thursday that pretty much locked up the Wildcats' NCAA tournament bid. However, Kansas State is a tough team to watch, as it relies on defense, doesn't have a go-to scoring stud and often loses the rebounding battle. Meanwhile, Wake Forest has John Collins (19.1 points per game) doing an impression of his head coach, Danny Manning, in carrying the team on his back. Collins, however, is supported by several other 3-point shooters, and the Demon Deacons also are solid at the free throw line. Defense is where Wake Forest has issues -- and why it is unlikely to make a deep run -- but I don't see that being a problem against Kansas State.

The pick: Wake Forest pick 'em* (lean to under 152.5)

No. 16 Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers vs. No. 16 New Orleans Privateers (-1.5)

When: 6:40 p.m. ET - Dayton, Ohio
Over/under: 131.5

Andrew Lange: These are two teams bettors don't know much about as Mount St. Mary's and New Orleans reside in small conferences. Mount St. Mary's opened the year 1-11, thanks to a daunting nonconference slate, but it won the Northeast Conference regular season and tournament. New Orleans is a great story, having nearly dissolved the program due to the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. In five years, head coach Mark Slessinger took the Privateers from a low 300-rated Independent to Southland champs.

When I see these competitively lined First Four matchups featuring low mid-major teams, I tend to rely on basic handicapping principles. Which team is poised to win the rebounding and turnover battles is very important in the postseason. Mount St. Mary's isn't a very big team, and it finished ninth out of 10 teams in rebounding margin (-4.5) in conference play. New Orleans, meanwhile, showed far more ability on the glass, with a +4.8 margin. The Privateers do two things very well: hit the offensive glass and get to the free throw line. Both leagues are similarly power rated, and yet New Orleans recorded 220 offensive rebounds and shot 448 free throws. Mount St. Mary's has only 146 offensive rebounds and went to the line 339 times.

The Mountaineers appear to have an edge with their guards, with a league-best +2.44 turnover margin. The Privateers struggled to hang on to the basketball, with a league-worst 16.6 turnovers per game, but they offset it by forcing 17.1.

The Northeast Conference hasn't fared well in its First Four matchups, with a 1-3 SU/ATS record. The Southland has a stronger pedigree, albeit from one program, Stephen F. Austin, which had memorable upsets over West Virginia last season and VCU in 2014. Without being able to see either team play, it's hard to really know what you're walking into. Small lean toward the more athletic and experienced New Orleans side at the current price, though I wouldn't lay more than a bucket.

The pick: Lean to New Orleans -1.5