It feels too early to be watching the scoreboard, but that’s how fun the NL West is right now. You want to see how the top three teams fared each night. The Colorado Rockies, Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks all have a winning percentage above .600, and that’s rarified company. Since divisional play began in 1969, one league has had three .600 teams only three times (2002 AL, 1998 NL and 1977 AL), and the 1977 AL East was the only division to feature three .600 teams, when the Yankees, Orioles and Red Sox accomplished it. The 2015 NL Central came close, with the Cardinals and Pirates above .600 and the Cubs finishing at .599.

Because all three teams are playing so well, there is a good change that the division winner will be joined by two NL West wild-card teams in the poststeason field, leaving the NL East and Central as one-team races the remainder of the season. But how will the race for the West play out?

Despite the close race, the projection systems still see the Dodgers as huge favorites. FanGraphs gives them an 86.7 percent chance of winning the division (compared to 8.5 percent for the Rockies and 4.8 percent for the Diamondbacks). Baseball Prospectus sees it as Dodgers at 77.2 percent, Rockies at 13.8 percent and Diamondbacks at 9.0 percent.

In other words, the computers, taking into account past performance and making adjustments for what’s happened so far in 2017, aren’t buying the hot starts of the Rockies and Diamondbacks. FanGraphs, for example, projects the Rockies to be .498 the rest of the way and the Diamondbacks to be .501.

It’s easy to understand why this is the case. The Dodgers have won four straight division titles, winning 91-plus games each season. The Rockies haven’t finished above .500 since 2010 and the Diamondbacks since 2011. It’s not like either of those franchises brought in Willie Mays and Hank Aaron in the offseason.

Still, I think this race will end up a lot closer than the Dodgers romping their way to a 10-game margin. Some thoughts why:

The Rockies and Diamondbacks aren’t benefiting from career seasons.

Take Colorado's offense, for example. Mark Reynolds has the highest OPS of his career, but I’m buying into this level of production. He made some changes to his approach last season and is striking out less often than in his 200-strikeout days with the Diamondbacks, and he has maintained a high BABIP for two seasons. Charlie Blackmon has been playing at this level for more than a year now, but even if he and Reynolds regress a bit, Carlos Gonzalez, DJ LeMahieu and Trevor Story have all hit below their 2016 levels.

Same thing with Arizona's offense. Paul Goldschmidt and Jake Lamb have carried the lineup so far, but A.J. Pollock has missed 30-something games with a groin injury, and once he returns he'll provide a much-needed third cog. Maybe Chris Owings is playing a little better than his career norm, but he isn't putting up monster numbers.

The one huge breakout performer on these two clubs has been Diamondbacks starter Robbie Ray, who is earning All-Star consideration with his 2.87 ERA through 14 starts. His ERA is lower than his 3.41 FIP (fielding independent pitching), but he has also showcased overpowering stuff, with 114 strikeouts in 87.2 innings and a .197 batting average allowed. He’s legit. Zack Godley has provided a surprising lift with a 2.34 ERA over eight starts and will regress from that number, but I like his chances to succeed as a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter moving forward.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, have three hitters ripe for some significant regression: Cody Bellinger, Chris Taylor and Justin Turner. Some of that will be covered by expected improvement from Joc Pederson and Logan Forsythe (I wouldn’t count on Adrian Gonzalez, however, as he is on the DL with back problems). These offenses are second (Colorado), third (L.A.) and fourth (Arizona) in the NL in runs, and if anything I like the Rockies’ chances to improve in this category moving forward, with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks holding steady.

The Rockies and Diamondbacks both have good rotations.

Entering Wednesday, the D-backs led the majors with a 3.53 ERA, the Dodgers were second at 3.54 and the Rockies were an impressive seventh at 4.02. The Diamondbacks don’t have a lot of depth, especially with Shelby Miller out for the season. But with Zack Greinke looking like an ace again and Taijuan Walker pitching well, the D-backs have an excellent 1-2-3 aside from whatever Godley provides.

The computers aren’t buying the solid ERAs of the Rockies starters, especially their rookies who have performed so well. Antonio Senzatela and Kyle Freeland have significantly lower ERAs than FIPs, as does veteran Tyler Chatwood, while German Marquez has posted a 3.92 ERA, pitching well despite working primarily with just a fastball/slider combo. Jeff Hoffman, the fourth rookie, had a 2.25 ERA before blowing up in Wednesday’s loss to the Diamondbacks, but those games are going to happen at Coors Field and he owns a 38-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Here’s why I like the Rockies' rotation to succeed moving forward: They’ll get staff ace Jon Gray back from his broken foot at some point, and Chad Bettis, recovered from his treatment for testicular cancer, is aiming to return before the All-Star break. They were the Rockies’ top two starters heading into the season, and since their missed time wasn’t a result of arm issues, the lack of innings in the first half could actually help keep them strong down the stretch. Once those two return (as well as Tyler Anderson, about ready to rejoin the big leagues after a rehab start on Sunday), manager Bud Black has a rare luxury for a Rockies manager: too many rotation options. A rotation of Gray, Bettis, Chatwood, Hoffman and the others would be the best in Rockies history.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, suddenly have some concerns, even with all their depth. At the start of the season, they were hoping their top three at this point would be Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill and Julio Urias or Kenta Maeda. Kershaw is still awesome but has appeared human of late, as he has already issued a career-high 17 home runs. Hill has had blister issues, like last season, and has been awful when he has pitched, as he has lost the feel and command of his curveball. Urias struggled in the majors and is now on the DL in Triple-A with shoulder inflammation, while Maeda has been moved to the bullpen with a 4.70 ERA. The saviors have been Alex Wood, who owns a 1.90 ERA, and Brandon McCarthy, with a 2.87 ERA. In this Year of the Home Run, those two have allowed just six over 130.1 combined innings; that won’t continue.

The schedule doesn’t really favor anyone.

If anything, it may slightly favor the Rockies. The Diamondbacks and Rockies both have 18 games remaining against the Giants and Padres, while the Dodgers have 22. But you can argue the Rockies caught the Giants -- they’re 10-1 against them -- at the right time, while the Dodgers may get them as they start playing better.

Also, remember that the AL has owned a big edge in interleague play, with an 80-57 advantage entering Wednesday. The Diamondbacks are 9-1 in interleague play with 10 games left against the Astros, Twins and Royals. The Rockies have 11 interleague games left. The Dodgers, however, have played just three interleague games, so they have 15 remaining. Yes, 11 of those are against the mediocre AL Central (with the other four against the Angels), but those are still tougher opponents than the Reds or Phillies (the Dodgers are 9-0 against those two teams).

Sure, the safe bet is that the Dodgers will win this thing. But in a National League in which some of the preseason playoff favorites -- like the Giants, Cardinals and Mets -- have looked bad, the Rockies and Diamondbacks should play much better than .500 moving forward. I see a three-team fight for the division title and hopefully one of the great races in history.