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In search of an edge rusher, 49ers seek merger of need and value

Boston College's Harold Landry might see his stock rise as the draft approaches because of the position he plays. Would the 49ers reach for him at No. 9? Photo by Andrew Snook/Icon Sportswire

SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- Every year, without fail, it takes the NFL mock draft community some time to catch up to how NFL talent evaluators view some players.

Sure, the top talent, particularly at quarterback, is usually apparent in January or even before, but there's always a couple players who aren't projected as high in mock drafts as teams rank them on their boards. Sometimes the media catches on. Other times it doesn't.

One variable that must be taken into account is whether you're discussing a premium position. In today's NFL, quarterbacks reign supreme, and their stock is elevated by their position. It's only logical, then, that the next most valuable position is the one that focuses on knocking the quarterback down: edge rushers.

Should there be any doubt about the value of that position, one need only look at how few true, difference-making edge rushers hit the free-agent market. Put simply, they don't. In other words, if you're a team in need of a dominant edge rusher such as the San Francisco 49ers, you must turn to the NFL draft to find help at that position.

Which brings us to the curious case of the 2018 NFL draft. According to most mock drafts, NC State's Bradley Chubb is the only pass-rusher who seems to be a lock to land in the top 10, and he will likely be taken before the 49ers select at No. 9. After Chubb, only Texas-San Antonio's Marcus Davenport and Boston College's Harold Landry are consistently mocked in the first round, with most of those choices coming somewhere in the 15 to 25 range.

The value of a pass-rusher (whether a defensive end or outside linebacker) has been apparent in recent drafts. Last year, two ends went in the top three. In 2016, three of the first nine picks were listed as ends or linebackers upon entering the league. The same could be said for 2015, though it was three of the first eight selections. In addition, each of the past two times a quarterback didn't go No. 1, an edge rusher did (Jadeveon Clowney and Myles Garrett).

Considering all of that, Davenport and Landry would seem to be prime examples of players who could go higher than many project.

For what it's worth, ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay have Landry pegged to go No. 25 to the Tennessee Titans, while NFL.com's panelists have Landry going at Nos. 18 and 23, and CBSSports.com's crew sends Landry to Detroit at No. 20 and the Giants at No. 22.

Last week, I surveyed three current NFL team evaluators and asked them where they think Landry and Davenport will go. Two of them said Landry is a top-15 player, while the third said between 15 and 20. All of them acknowledged that he could go even higher because of the value of his position, especially in a year when potential difference-makers aren't abundant at the position. A similar range was given for Davenport.

Landry might be one of the most intriguing players in this draft, both for his physical talents and for how his draft stock was affected by a disappointing and injury-plagued 2017 season. In 2016, Landry had 16.5 sacks and seven forced fumbles on his way to second-team All-American status. Last season, he suffered a high ankle sprain on Oct. 17 and was limited to eight games and five sacks, though he looked to be on his way to another big season before the injury.

The downturn in production undoubtedly dropped Landry's stock, but he seemed to regain some buzz with a dominant combine performance. There, he finished first or tied for first among edge rushers in the three-cone drill (6.88 seconds), 20-yard shuttle (4.19 seconds) and 60-yard shuttle (11.35 seconds). His 4.64-second 40-yard dash ranked fifth at his position.

To put those numbers in perspective, consider that among pass-rushers weighing 250-plus pounds, only six others have run the three-cone in less than 6.9 seconds. The others? DeMarcus Ware, J.J. Watt, T.J. Watt, Melvin Ingram, Joey Bosa and David Pollack.

At 6-foot-3, 252 pounds, Landry isn't huge but is big enough to play the Leo defensive end spot in the Niners' 4-3 defense. Coming off the injury, there are questions about how well he can defend the run and whether he'd be better off as an outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme.

Still, there's no denying the 49ers' need for help getting after quarterbacks from the edge. In 2017, they finished tied for 26th in the NFL in sacks (30), and they have not had a player post more than 8.5 sacks in a season since 2012.

As it stands, the hope is that a group of Cassius Marsh, Arik Armstead, Eli Harold and Jerry Attaochu can piece together enough edge rush to successfully complement the consistent inside push from defensive tackle DeForest Buckner.

After addressing a serious need at cornerback with Richard Sherman, there's optimism that the Niners' defense can take another step forward in 2018. Adding a talented edge rusher such as Landry could accelerate that growth if he can have a similar impact to what the Atlanta Falcons got from Vic Beasley, the eighth pick of the 2015 draft.

Niners coach Kyle Shanahan saw Beasley's impact up close as the Falcons' offensive coordinator and saw Beasley do it in a scheme similar to what the Niners run under coordinator Robert Saleh.

"The edges, your corners and your edge rushers are what get you off the field," Saleh said. "They’re the ones that get you off in two-minute. They’re the ones that win in the red zone. And so, from that regard, it is a domino effect. We get to third down very, very easily. Now we need to, as a defense, we need to learn how to close."

Finding a closer off the edge would go a long way in that mission. The question for the Niners as the draft approaches is how much they value a player such as Landry or Davenport and, perhaps more importantly, the position he plays.