NFL teams
Mike Rodak, ESPN Staff Writer 6y

How the Bills can take advantage of AFC's future quarterback problem

Looking forward, does the AFC have a quarterback problem?

Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers have been the class of the conference for more than a decade, but  all are nearing the end of their NFL career. When next season starts, Brady will be 41, and both Roethlisberger and Rivers will be 36. For now, none of their teams has an obvious quarterback of the future.

As the trio potentially declines or retires in the coming years, the AFC's only bona fide franchise quarterback left standing could be Andrew Luck -- and his shoulder injury puts his future availability in some level of doubt.

Of the remaining group of AFC quarterbacks, Deshaun Watson has the brightest future. Marcus Mariota, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles and Ryan Tannehill have all shown promise but must take steps forward. Patrick Mahomes remains an unknown. Joe Flacco, Alex Smith and Andy Dalton are all 30 or older and have won a total of two playoff games over the past five seasons.

The Buffalo Bills fall into the category of teams -- along with the Jets, Browns and Broncos -- without any sort of short or long-term clarity at quarterback.

"It's a quarterback league," Bills general manager Brandon Beane told WGR 550 last week. "Until you know you have the guy that you're definitely going to build this team around, and obviously the offense around, you're constantly searching. The teams that make the runs in the playoffs consistently have a guy that they lean on year in and year out, and we're still in the process of getting that accomplished."

Lacking a clear-cut answer at quarterback is not a desirable spot for any team, but the Bills have the draft capital this spring to maneuver into a better long-term position at quarterback than most of their AFC competition. If Beane plays his hand correctly, the Bills can flip the script from lagging behind at quarterback to being in the AFC's driver's seat because they have one.

Good luck to NFC teams trying to get a leg up at quarterback. That conference is stacked with established quarterbacks with long-term futures (Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford) and up-and-comers (Carson Wentz, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jared Goff, Jameis Winston and Dak Prescott).

Even if Kirk Cousins flips conferences and joins the AFC this offseason, there will still be an imbalance in the number of teams who have their quarterback question answered for the foreseeable future.

That could make it easier for quarterback-needy AFC teams such as the Bills to compete in the long term than for New York Giants or Arizona Cardinals to climb the ladder in the NFC, even if those clubs find replacements for Eli Manning and Carson Palmer.

The Bills face a fight near the top of the first round if they want to get their hands on Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield or Josh Allen, who are considered the best quarterbacks of their class. The Cleveland Browns and Giants, holding the first two picks, need quarterbacks and most likely will not give one they like away to the Bills in a trade.

That leaves Buffalo to try and slide into the order at No. 3, the Indianapolis Colts' pick, or No. 4, the Browns' second pick. Doing so would leapfrog the Broncos (No. 5) and Jets (No. 6), who are also expected to be in the quarterback market.

The cost for the Bills to move up to No. 3 or No. 4 would be steep, but they have the draft capital to pull it off. Buffalo owns eight selections in the first five rounds, including an extra first-round pick from the Chiefs (No. 22), a second-round pick from the Rams and a fifth-round pick from the Jaguars.

Packaging the Chiefs' pick and the Bills' original first-round pick, No. 21, would only get the Bills to No. 7 under one version of a draft trade value chart. Moving ahead of the Broncos or Jets would probably require more picks, either in 2018 or beyond, to sweeten the deal.

"It's early to decide what makes the most sense," Beane told WGR 550 last week. "The exciting thing is we have some premium picks."

Beane said he has personally watched all of the potential first-round picks at quarterback, but did not rule out remaining at Nos. 21 and 22 to try and land one.

"Generally, if you got some high-value guys -- which everybody is claiming to be this year -- they're not going to fall to 21 or 22," he said. "But maybe there's some guys there that we like. Maybe there's a guy in another round. Maybe we answer it in free agency."

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