NFL teams
Mike Triplett, ESPN Staff Writer 7y

Fantasy Fallout: Sammy Watkins, Ezekiel Elliott and preseason breakouts

Over the past six days, we've seen 30 teams make their preseason debuts, a blockbuster three-team trade and a game-changing suspension for one of the NFL's top running backs.

What better time for the 2017 debut of our weekly Fantasy Fallout column, where we scan the league for insight from our 32 ESPN NFL Nation reporters.

Good for Rams (and Gurley), bad for Watkins: The Sammy Watkins trade might have brought more glitz and glamour to L.A., but it was a bummer for his fantasy prospects. Watkins plummeted about 10 spots among receivers in ESPN's expert rankings, and his average draft position has dropped more than 20 spots overall in ESPN drafts since he was traded from the Buffalo Bills to the Los Angeles Rams.

ESPN Rams reporter Alden Gonzalez isn't surprised. Although Gonzalez wrote about how the Rams finally have that true No. 1 receiver they've needed, he also pointed out that Los Angeles ranked last in the NFL in total yardage in both 2015 and 2016.

"This is a good, necessary move for the Rams, but that doesn't mean it's a good one for Watkins," Gonzalez said, adding that it's no guarantee he even reaches 1,000 yards unless the Rams' offense grows significantly under first-year coach Sean McVay and second-year quarterback Jared Goff. "I think Watkins' greatest value will be what he will open up for others, particularly a possession receiver like Robert Woods and a slot receiver like Cooper Kupp."

And, yes, running back Todd Gurley.

Gonzalez expects improvement from one of fantasy's most frustrating players in 2016, thanks to the arrival of an offensive innovator like McVay and an upgraded offensive line led by new left tackle Andrew Whitworth.

"I don't think we'll ever see Gurley approach the 4.8 yards per carry that he had as a rookie. But I can see him bumping it to about 4.0, and he should get in the end zone more frequently," said Gonzalez, who wrote that McVay wants to use Gurley more in the preseason than last year to get him in rhythm. "Heading into the year, I was worried that Lance Dunbar would steal some of his targets in the passing game. But Dunbar hasn't practiced because of a knee injury, and the Rams really like what Gurley brings as a receiver."

Bills' new-look WR corps: Meanwhile, ESPN Bills reporter Mike Rodak wrote a handy fantasy breakdown of the Bills' receiving corps -- which seems to change by the day with last week's signing of veteran Anquan Boldin, Watkins' departure, Jordan Matthews' arrival, and the chip fracture Matthews suffered in his sternum on his first day of practice.

One key warning that Rodak included in his analysis: Matthews is going from a Philadelphia Eagles offense that averaged 38.1 pass attempts last year (sixth in the NFL) to a Bills offense that averaged 29.6 pass attempts (last in the NFL). The Bills have changed their coaching staff since then, but not their main offensive identity with quarterback Tyrod Taylor and running back LeSean McCoy.

McFadden or committee in Dallas? Darren McFadden is the obvious choice to fill in during Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott's six-game suspension -- and perhaps a sneaky-good draft pick if he slips outside the top 30 running backs in your draft. We know how good that Dallas offensive line is, and McFadden ran for 1,089 yards in 2015 even though he didn't become the Cowboys' lead back until the sixth game of the season.

However, ESPN Cowboys reporter Todd Archer warned that it's possible Dallas could go "committee-ish" while Elliott is out, with veteran backup Alfred Morris also getting some touches. Archer said that would go against what offensive coordinator Scott Linehan has done in the past with leading men like DeMarco Murray in 2014, McFadden in 2015 and Elliott last year. But Linehan said, "I think it will be more than one guy, more than last year. That is certainly a possibility."

Believe the Week 1 breakouts? Detroit Lions rookie receiver Kenny Golladay should absolutely be on your radar in deeper drafts. ESPN Lions reporter Mike Rothstein has written about how the third-round pick from Northern Illinois has impressed from day one this offseason and continuing into Sunday's preseason opener, when he made three difficult catches for a total of 53 yards and two touchdowns. But Rothstein also stressed that Golladay is still the No. 3 receiver behind Golden Tate and Marvin Jones for now, and he pointed out that history hasn't always been kind to preseason breakout receivers.

"It's tough to see -- at least at the start of the season -- Golladay being higher than No. 5 on the target list behind Tate, Jones, tight end Eric Ebron and running backs Theo Riddick/Ameer Abdullah. But if Jones struggles like he did at points last season and Golladay does well with his opportunities, that could change throughout the year," Rothstein said. "In dynasty formats, I'm high on Golladay."

It's even harder to get excited about second-year Cowboys tight end Rico Gathers (seven catches for 106 yards and two touchdowns through two games), second-year New Orleans Saints receiver Tommylee Lewis (a league-leading 10 catches and 124 yards, plus a touchdown, in Week 1) and Seattle Seahawks rookie running back Chris Carson (two touchdown runs) because of limited opportunities.

All three of them are probably doing enough to secure spots on the 53-man roster. But Archer wrote about how Gathers (a former college basketball player) is still taking "baby steps" and might only be in line for a part-time red zone role. I wrote about how Lewis is still fifth among receivers in the pecking order behind Michael Thomas, Willie Snead, Ted Ginn Jr. and Brandon Coleman (who is also having a terrific training camp and might even be worth more consideration in very deep leagues).

Meanwhile, Seahawks reporter Sheil Kapadia has written often about Carson's impressive summer, and believes he can work into the mix with Eddie Lacy, Thomas Rawls and C.J. Prosise. But he has also stressed what a "mess" and a "nightmare" the overcrowded Seahawks backfield is shaping up to be for fantasy owners.

"I would definitely caution fantasy owners against grabbing Lacy too early. And grabbing [both] Lacy and Rawls probably isn't a safe strategy, either, because there's no guarantee that one will emerge as the lead back," Kapadia said. "It feels like a stay-away for me."

Don't sleep on Crowell, West: Two of the strongest fantasy endorsements of the past week have come for Cleveland Browns running back Isaiah Crowell (from ESPN Browns reporter Pat McManamon) and for Baltimore Ravens running back Terrance West (from West himself).

McManamon wrote that Crowell might be the NFL's most underrated back and seems primed for a big season. He has touted Crowell all year as someone who has the ability and just needs more opportunity, which he thinks Crowell will get this season, despite the presence of fellow back Duke Johnson Jr. Browns coach Hue Jackson has vowed to run the ball more in 2017, admitting he didn't use Crowell enough last season.

"The guy had almost 1,000 yards a year ago when I didn't hand him the ball," Jackson said. "What can he do if I do hand him the ball?"

West, meanwhile, did his own fantasy campaigning, telling reporters, "It'd be smart to grab me." West appears to be undervalued, since he's being drafted 35th among running backs in ESPN drafts so far this summer and is a "near lock" to be the Baltimore starter, as ESPN Ravens reporter Jamison Hensley pointed out. West also lost 12 pounds this offseason and is excited about the fit in assistant Greg Roman's new downhill run scheme. However, there is always the possibility Baltimore could add to its backfield before Week 1.

^ Back to Top ^