Tony Grossi, ESPN Cleveland 5y

Dome-spoiled Falcons arrive in Cleveland after leaves have fallen to face unfamiliar foe and familiar nemesis

Editor's note: Tony Grossi covers the Cleveland Browns for ESPN 850 WKNR.

Four downs on Browns (2-6-1) v. Atlanta Falcons (4-4)

First down: History of success.

The Browns’ 11-3 record against the Falcons is their best against any NFL team. The Falcons have worse records against only two other teams – Indianapolis (2-14) and Pittsburgh (2-14-1). The Browns have won three of four meetings even in their expansion era. Two of them were milestone victories for the Browns. In 2002, the Browns needed to win their 16th game for a chance at the playoffs, and they hung on, 24-16, after a 64-yard touchdown run by William Green. The Falcons cooperated by virtually acquiescing at the 1-yard line after they were secured an NFC playoff spot as a result of another game. The Browns didn’t clinch their playoff spot until the right outcome in another AFC game later that night. In 2014, the Browns left Atlanta with a 26-24 victory on a last-second field goal by Billy Cundiff. That win raised the Browns’ record to 7-4 and kept them alive in the AFC North race. Alas, they would lose their last five games, precipitating a downturn in fortunes unprecedented in team history. Since that last win against the Falcons, the Browns have gone 6-55-1.

Second down: Shuffling defensive pieces.

Both teams have suffered defensively because of injuries knocking out starters. The Falcons have recovered of late to win three games in a row. The Browns haven’t been as resourceful. The Falcons are the Browns’ fourth opponent in a row ranked in the top 10 in scoring. During the practice week, the Browns were encouraged to get back middle linebacker Joe Schobert (hamstring) and free safety Damarious Randall (groin). Also, cornerback Denzel Ward (hip), who left last week’s game in the first quarter, finished the practice week on the field and declared himself “fine.” At the same time, the Browns shelved for the duration of the season two key players -- outside linebacker and defensive captain Christian Kirksey (hamstring) and cornerback E.J. Gaines (concussion). And so it goes.

Third down: The really big fish that got away.

During film study of the Falcons, Browns defensive players marveled at the athletic talent of 6-3, 220-pound Atlanta receiver Julio Jones. Randall, who opposed Jones as a cornerback with the Packers, said, “Julio is the best receiver I’ve ever faced. Big, fast, strong, you name it. He’s pretty much what you want in your typical receiver nowadays.” None in the Browns’ locker room probably was aware that Jones should have been their Cleveland teammate. Alas, on the day of the 2011 draft, the Browns traded the No. 6 overall pick to the Falcons. Atlanta GM Thomas Dimitroff was anxious to provide quarterback Matt Ryan, then entering his fourth season, an elite receiving threat. Dimitroff had a personal relationship with then-Browns GM Tom Heckert – both their fathers were Browns scouts in the 1980s. Both teams received criticism from local media for making the deal. Dimitroff was criticized for mortgaging the Falcons’ future. He gave up five draft picks – his team’s first-, second- and fourth-round picks in 2011 and its first- and fourth-round picks in 2012. Heckert was criticized for passing on a receiver with rare physical skills. We know how it turned out. In his eighth season, Jones, 29, has totaled 9,987 receiving yards and scored 44 touchdowns. With perhaps one catch on Sunday, he will eclipse 10,000 receiving yards faster than any player in NFL history. Meanwhile, the players the Browns eventually used on Atlanta’s draft picks are all long gone from Cleveland – defensive tackle Phil Taylor, receiver Greg Little, fullback Owen Marecic, running back Trent Richardson, and quarterback Brandon Weeden. Richardson was taken third overall in 2012 in a trade in which Heckert threw in Atlanta’s fourth-rounder. All are out of the NFL except Weeden, who is a backup with the Houston Texans after being out of the league for two years.

Fourth down: Baker’s next step.

Rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield’s record as the starting quarterback has fallen to 1-5 after four losses in a row. One more loss would equal his three-year total at Oklahoma, where he was 34-6 after transferring from Texas Tech as a walk-on and collected the Heisman Trophy en route to the No. 1 overall selection in the 2018 draft. After making his first start in Game 3, Mayfield has plowed through the breaking-in of two new, struggling offensive tackles; trades of his projected No. 1 receiver and No. 1 running back; the sixth-most dropped passes in the NFL; and the firing of his head coach and offensive coordinator. Still, over the last three games, Mayfield has completed 74 of 112 passes (.660) for 692 yards, six touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 93.3. The spurt raised Mayfield’s season completion percentage to an even 60.0 and his overall rating to 81.5. This week, interim coach Gregg Williams said he conveyed the message to Mayfield to “just cut it loose and play and make faster and faster decisions.” The next step for Mayfield: Get back on the winning track.

Prediction: Browns, 26-23.

My record: 4-4-1.

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