Mike Rodak, ESPN Staff Writer 5y

Strong Bills defense being wasted in 2018, and maybe beyond

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- The Buffalo Bills this season are one of only 15 teams since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to have been outscored by 145 points or more through their first nine games.

Unlike most of their company, the Bills are sinking to new lows despite having one of the league's better defenses.

The Bills rank third in yards allowed per play (5.08), which includes the NFL's sixth-best mark against the run (3.91 yards allowed per rush) and third-best rate against the pass (6.36 net yards per pass attempt).

Although the Bills rank 26th in points allowed this season (26.8), that can be partly attributed to opponents starting drives on average with 66.6 yards to score, the best field position seen by any team's opponents since the 2010 Bills. It can also be blamed on the Bills ranking 20th this season in third-down conversion rate allowed and being tied for 24th in red zone defense.

One metric that has treated the Bills' defense particularly well has been Football Outsiders' DVOA, which rates it as second best in the NFL. The other seven teams that have posted point differentials of minus-145 or worse through nine games since 1986, the extent of Football Outsiders' data, have all ranked 26th or worse in defense.

That leaves the 2018 Bills as a statistical oddity -- a very bad team with an absolutely horrendous offense but a good defense.

The Bills' efforts on defense will largely go to waste. At 2-7, their season is effectively over. Buffalo will enter the offseason with its defense viewed as a building block for future success, but if the franchise's history this century is any indication, such an ascension is hardly guaranteed:

2003 Bills

  • Yards allowed per play: 4.27, second best in NFL

  • Football Outsiders DVOA: minus-11.0 percent, seventh best

  • Result: The Bills finished with a 6-10 record and missed the playoffs. Defense-minded coach Gregg Williams, completing his third season, was not retained. He was replaced by Mike Mularkey, an offense-minded coach hired to turn around the league's 30th-ranked offense.

2004 Bills

  • Yards allowed per play: 4.32, best in NFL

  • Football Outsiders DVOA: minus-28.5 percent, best

  • Result: The Bills finished with a 9-7 record but missed the playoffs when the Pittsburgh Steelers, resting many of their starters as they cruised into the postseason, snapped the Bills' six-game winning streak in the regular-season finale. Mularkey lasted one more season before resigning his position. Defensive coordinator Jerry Gray also was gone after the 2005 season.

2009 Bills

  • Yards allowed per play: 5.02, ninth best in NFL

  • Football Outsiders DVOA: minus-9.2 percent, eighth best

  • Result: The Bills struggled on both sides of the ball through their first nine games, leading to a 3-6 record and Dick Jauron's ouster after three-plus seasons. He was replaced by defensive coordinator Perry Fewell and the defense rebounded in the final seven games, allowing the league's second-best yards per play over that span. The Bills finished 6-10 and Buffalo opted to hire an offensive-minded coach, Chan Gailey, the following offseason.

2013 Bills

  • Yards allowed per play: 4.90, sixth best in NFL

  • Football Outsiders DVOA: minus-13.8 percent, fourth best

  • Result: The Bills spent a first-round pick on quarterback EJ Manuel and he was forced to start as a rookie after Kevin Kolb suffered a career-ending concussion in the preseason. In a parallel to the Bills' situation this season -- No. 7 overall pick Josh Allen has missed the past three games because of an elbow injury -- Manuel was knocked out for four games because of a knee injury. The season spiraled, the Bills finished 6-10 and defensive coordinator Mike Pettine was hired as the Cleveland Browns' coach the following offseason.

2014 Bills

  • Yards allowed per play: 4.86, third best in NFL

  • Football Outsiders DVOA: minus-15.5 percent, second best

  • Result: Pettine was replaced by Jim Schwartz, who got similar results from the defense with a different scheme. Problems remained on the other side of the ball, where Manuel was benched after four games and replaced by Kyle Orton. The day after the season ended, Orton retired and head coach Doug Marrone resigned two days later. He was replaced by Rex Ryan, who oversaw the defense's demise over the next two seasons.

^ Back to Top ^