Jamison Hensley, ESPN Staff Writer 6y

Ravens have 82.8 percent chance of making playoffs despite loss to Steelers

PITTSBURGH -- The Baltimore Ravens' 39-38 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers was demoralizing and frustrating.

But, in the big picture, the last-minute defeat cost the Ravens 6.5 percentage points.

The Ravens still have an 82.8 percent chance of reaching the postseason with three weeks remaining, according to ESPN Analytics. Baltimore entered Week 14 with a 89.3 percent chance.

The reasoning is the Ravens control their fate and enjoy the easiest schedule of the three 7-6 teams. If Baltimore wins out, the Ravens beat out the Buffalo Bills based on common opponents and the Los Angeles Chargers based on conference record.

Here are the games for the 7-6 teams in the AFC:

  • Ravens: at Cleveland (0-13), home against Indianapolis (3-10) and home against Cincinnati (5-8)

  • Bills: home against Miami (5-7), at New England (10-2) and at Miami (5-7)

  • L.A. Chargers: at Kansas City (7-6), at New York Jets (5-8) and home against Oakland (6-7)

Baltimore's final three opponents have a combined 8-31 (.205) record. That's a much more favorable road than Buffalo (20-16, .555) and the Chargers (18-21, .461) face.

This is why the Ravens have a league-best 37.8 percent chance of winning the rest of their games. The goal is to secure a wild-card berth because Pittsburgh clinched the AFC North. The Ravens have a 48.9 percent chance of securing the No. 6 seed and a 3.9 percent chance of getting the No. 5 seed.

The Bills have a 12.2 percent chance of reaching the postseason. The Chargers' are at 44.9 percent.

^ Back to Top ^