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No, NFL analytics models don't always recommend going for it on fourth down: Here's the method

Do NFL analytics models always recommend going for it on fourth down? No. Here's how the decisions actually are made.

86dSeth Walder

Top Headlines

NFL

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NFL pass-rushing, run-stopping, blocking leaderboard: Win rate rankings for 2023

Our win rate metics stack the NFL's best run-blocking, run-stopping, pass-protecting and pass-rushing players and teams.

102dESPN Analytics

NFL

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Updated NFL playoff picture: AFC, NFC seed projections after Week 17

We're looking ahead to how the 14-team playoff picture could line up en route to Super Bowl LVIII.

110dESPN staff

Packers

NFL

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Going for 2 down 8 points: Packers pull off come-from-behind win thanks to this strategy

The Packers profited from being the first team this season to try this unconventional 2-point conversion attempt. Here's why others should follow their lead.

208dSeth Walder

news - analytics

2023 NBA draft projections: Will Victor Wembanyama become an All-Star?

How do Victor Wembanyama's All-Star chances stack up to those of prior top draft picks?

305dChris Harden

NFL

NFL game management cheat sheet: Guide to fourth downs and 2-point conversions

Curious about a fourth-down or 2-point conversion decision? ESPN's recommendation model can help.

1ySeth Walder

NFL

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NFL pass-rushing, run-stopping, blocking leaderboard: Win rate rankings for 2022

Our win rate metics stack the best run-blocking, run-stopping, pass-protecting and pass-rushing players and teams in the game for the 2022 season.

1yESPN Analytics

Khalil Herbert gains 63 yards on a run against the Commanders.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics1y ago

Darius Slayton gets open on a short route, makes a catch and takes it for a 24-yard gain against the Lions.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics1y ago

NFL

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Which NFL teams are most, least analytics-advanced? We surveyed 21 team staffers

Which NFL team buys in to analytics the most? Which teams remain skeptical? And is momentum a thing? We surveyed team staffers from around the league for the inside word.

1ySeth Walder

NFL

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Checking in on the top 10 CB picks in the 2021 Draft as the nearest defender today, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Patrick Surtain: 1 reception allowed for -4 yards on 1 target over 28 coverage snaps. Jaycee Horn: 1 reception allowed for -1 yards on 1 target over 26 coverage snaps.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics1y ago

NFL

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PJ Walker's touchdown pass to DJ Moore had an air distance of 67.6 yards -- the longest air distance completion in the Next Gen Stats era, since 2016.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics1y ago

NFL

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The Chiefs won despite a massive error by Andy Reid punting on 4th-and-3 at the Raiders' 46 with 2:36 left, per ESPN's win probability model. Win probability had they gone for it: 78.3% Win probability by punting: 69.1%

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics2y ago

NFL

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Deebo Dots! Expected YAC: 1.0 yards Actual YAC: 51.7 yards Per NFL Next Gen Stats

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics2y ago

Eagles

NFL

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Haason Reddick pass rush win rate at edge Weeks 1-2: 4%, 58th/62 Weeks 3-4: 29%, T-6th/61 (ESPN / NFL Next Gen Stats)

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics2y ago

Steelers

NFL

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Steelers mixed up George Pickens' routes much more today. He had previously run an extreme rate of straight downfield routes. Go routes W1-3: 17% W4: 4% Deep fades W1-3: 23% W4: 13% Image is his route map today, on all routes. (ESPN / NGS)

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics2y ago

Zay Jones (7) open deep but untargeted in Week 1.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics2y ago

NFL

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Big takeaways from ESPN's new pass-catcher stats: A.J. Brown is always open, Kendrick Bourne is underrated

Mark Andrews is elite, Kendrick Bourne is underused and Deebo Samuel's yards-after-catch production in 2021 nearly broke our new metrics.

2ySeth Walder

NFL

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Introducing Receiver Tracking Metrics: How our new NFL stats can better rate pass-catchers

Our metrics use player tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats to analyze every route run and assess receiver performance in three distinct phases.

2yBrian Burke

NFL

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Dan Campbell has made a lot of good decisions on 4th down, but late Sunday against the Vikings he made a costly error. Campbell elected to attempt a FG while up 3 points on 4th-and-4 at the Vikings' 36. Win probabilities from ESPN's model based on the decision: Go: 89.6% Kick: 85.4% Punt: 90.0% So the model slightly preferred punt as the best option over going for it. But it substantially preferred either over attempting the FG. The difference between being up 3 and 6 late is very small.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics2y ago

Cowboys

NFL

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Micah Parsons is just the fifth player to record back-to-back games with a pass rush win rate of 50% or higher. The other four: Von Miller, Dwight Freeney, Robert Quinn, Melvin Ingram.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics2y ago