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Matt WalshNiall Seewang 6y

AFL W2W4, prelim finals: The Pies' four-quarter question

AFL

Hands up who predicted a final four of Richmond, West Coast, Collingwood and Melbourne?

No one? That's not surprising. Of course, most AFL experts and fans would have picked Richmond to make the preliminary finals stage but very few would have foreseen the other three teams that have made it to the penultimate weekend of the year.

West Coast were tipped by many to slide out of the top eight after some key retirements and injury clouds over Nic Naitanui, while the Magpies and Demons both clearly had potential but weren't trustworthy. 

All three have defied the doubters with sensational home-and-away and finals campaigns -- so far -- and all deserve to be fighting for a place in the Grand Final.

Here's What To Watch For during the preliminary finals

What happens with Dustin Martin?

The question is three-fold; will Dustin Martin be fit, will he play more in the forward line if he isn't 100 percent fit, and who gets him when he is forward?

It's a perplexing situation down at Punt Road this week, after it was revealed Martin didn't train with the main group during the week, nursing what could be a niggle in the knee, or a potential cork. Richmond, though, are adamant he will be taking to the field against Collingwood on Friday night. 

It also sets up a possible game-shaping dilemma for Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley, who must be wondering whether or not to change the Magpies' plan for the reigning Brownlow medallist. Should Martin shake off whatever he is nursing, it would be logical to think Levi Greenwood would shadow the Richmond champ in the midfield.

But should Martin spend more time forward than usual, Buckley needs to find the best way to combat Martin's explosiveness and strength.

The job might be best suited to to 21-year-old Brayden Maynard, who last week played his career-best game in keeping GWS star Toby Greene to just nine touches and no score. It would be a massive task for Maynard (a few centimetres taller than Martin but a few kilos lighter) but one which could pay dividends if he can have a similar showing to the one he produced last week. 

It's fair to say the talk heading into Richmond's prelim was always going to be about Dusty, but the narrative has changed following his lighter week on the training track. But the news only raises more questions than it does provide answers.

Can the Pies go four quarters against the Tigers?

Twice this year, Collingwood have gone toe-to-toe with Richmond for three quarters before fading in the final stanza. Back in Round 6, the Tigers led by 11 points at the last break before an eight-goal-to-three avalanche buried the Pies' challenge. Round 19 was even tighter, with the Tigers up by just four points at the final change before booting five goals to one to run out (semi) convincing winners.

It's a pattern that has unfolded regularly at the MCG this season, with multiple teams (Carlton in Round 1, Melbourne in Round 5, St Kilda in Round 10, Geelong in Round 13, Sydney in Round 15, Adelaide in Round 16, Geelong in Round 20, Essendon in Round 22 and the Bulldogs in Round 23) getting within striking distance of the Tigers at three-quarter time before a final-term Richmond surge.

What confidence this Tigers outfit must have when it comes to finding a way to win when a game is there to be won. Collingwood, though, will enter this monster prelim with some degree of confidence too, with both of their losses to Richmond this year coming after the Pies lost key players during the contest, hindering their rotations.

If the injury gods finally smile at them on Friday night, they might be a decent shot of shocking the reigning premiers.

Should the Eagles be wary of the Dees' record in Perth?

For years, Melbourne have been cannon fodder for the Eagles during their trips out west. But like many of the hoodoos they've slayed during their renaissance in the past few years, there is reason for Melbourne to be confident ahead of their clash in Perth.

Tom McDonald's five-goal haul at Subiaco Oval last year helped Melbourne break a nine-game losing streak to West Coast, while he also kicked three when the two teams met at Optus Stadium just a month or so ago when the Dees secured their spot in the finals with a 17-point win.

That most recent victory came, however, with the Eagles missing star forward Josh Kennedy, while his forwardline partner Jack Darling was concussed early and ruled out of the rest of the game. The Demons though were also without co-captain and midfield bulldozer Jack Viney, who has been in blistering form since returning for his side's first final against Geelong.

As much as the Demons are riding a wave of serious momentum, Saturday's clash will be yet another step up for a group still relatively young and inexperienced. The Eagles are fresh from a week off and Kennedy, Darling and Co. will test out the Demons' improved (yet still possibly vulnerable) backline. To win, Melbourne must dominate through the midfield to prevent easy ball through to West Coast's attacking tall timber.

If there's one thing the Demons would have gleaned from their two most recent away games against the Eagles, it's the fact they can win against a quality team in hostile territory. And make no mistake - Optus Stadium on Saturday will be hostile. But in boasting an eye-catching 6-1 interstate record in 2018, at least Simon Goodwin's men know can do the job away from the comfort of the MCG.

Expect the Dees to beat the heat

When the AFL decided Saturday's prelim in Perth would be shifted to an afternoon timeslot, fans out west might have thought the potential for a warm day would perfectly suit the Eagles -- after all, they not only train in the harsher Perth weather, but live it every day.

But the forecasted temperature of 23 degrees isn't going to send a shiver down the spine of the team whose fans are renowned for heading to colder pastures once the snow starts to fall in the mountains ... in fact, it could be quite the opposite. 

During the year, the Dees played two home games in the Northern Territory. One against Adelaide in Alice Springs and one in Darwin against the Dockers.

In Alice Springs in May, the Dees dismantled the Crows to the tune of 91 points to kickstart the beginning of the end of Adelaide's season. The temperature that day? A baking high of 29 degrees. A couple of months later in Darwin against the Dockers, Melbourne kicked away to an easy 54-point win in even warmer 30-degree weather, with an extra slice of humidity. 

So while the romanticism of a fiery cauldron at Optus Stadium is a fun argument for why the Eagles should get the job done over a heat-affected Melbourne, it's just not going to fall that way. If anything, the Eagles should be wary considering the Demons have proven they can perform when the heat is on -- literally and figuratively.

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